This award season, the race couldn’t be more complicated.

While a few of the categories seem pretty easy to predict (sixth times a charm, right Leo!?), Best Picture is still very up in the air. Right now, its basically a three-way race between Spotlight, The Revenant, and The Big Short. Each film has a major guild win (Spotlight with a SAG, The Revenant with a DGA, and The Big Short with a PGA), so it’s a pretty tight competition. 

Regardless of how the night turns out, it should be pretty entertaining. Let’s take a look at this year’s nominees of who should win vs. who could/should win.

Best performance by an Actress in a Leading Role:
Cate Blanchett – Carol
Brie Larson – Room
Jennifer Lawrence – Joy
Charlotte Rampling – 45 Years
Saoirse Ronan – Brooklyn

Who Will Win: Brie Larson – Room

This award has Larson’s name all over it. She has won basically every award she has been up for this season and her performance was flawless. Also, the Academy loves giving this award to a young women breaking out into stardom. (Hello, JLaw, Natalie Portman, and Marion Cotillard)

Who Could Win: Charlotte Rampling – 45 Years

Rampling could be the only road block in the way to Larson’s victory run. I haven’t seen the film, but reviews claim her performance was up there. Rampling voiced some troubling words regarding the Oscars So White campaign, so if Oscar voters are looking to protest the new rules, Rampling might pick up some votes.

Best performance by an Actor in a Leading Role:
Bryan Cranston – Trumbo
Matt Damon – The Martian
Leonardo DiCaprio – The Revenant
Michael Fassbender – Steve Jobs
Eddie Redmayne – The Danish Girl

Who Will Win: Leonardo DiCaprio – The Revenant

If Leo doesn’t win, the world will basically explode. Not only is he due for the award, he deserves it. DiCaprio has been on a major campaign this season. He’s told countless stories of how difficult it was to make this film with the troubling weather and rough conditions. Also, did you know that Leo, the vegan, had to eat raw bison liver for this????

Who Could Win: Bryan Cranston – Trumbo

Honestly, I don’t think there is a chance that Leo looses this award, yet if someone was to have a small, small chance of taking it away, it would be Cranston. Who would have thought the dad from Malcolm in the Middle would be nominated for an Oscar?

Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role:
Christian Bale – The Big Short
Tom Hardy – The Revenant
Mark Ruffalo – Spotlight
Mark Rylance – Bridge of Spies
Sylvester Stallone – Creed

Who Will Win: Sylvester Stallone – Creed

By giving Stallone the Oscar, the Academy is basically saying, “uhh, here’s the Oscar you should have won back in 1977!” While it was a good performance, Stallone basically wins for the sentimental vote.

Who Could Win: Mark Rylance – Bridge of Spies

While I thought Bridge of Spies was a little slow, Rylance played a compelling spy. In the typical Spielberg film, Rylance played the bad guy you couldn’t help but like. If the sentimental card doesn’t work for Stallone, expect Rylance to take the stage.

Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role:
Jennifer Jason Leigh – The Hateful Eight
Rooney Mara – Carol
Rachel McAdams – Spotlight
Alicia Vikander – The Danish Girl
Kate Winslet – Steve Jobs

Who Will Win: Alicia Vikander – The Danish Girl

Vikander has had quite the year. While this might not be the best category for her performance, it is where she could win. A lot of critics have argued though that while she deserves the nomination, she is nominated for the wrong film.Vikander should have been recognized in her role for Ex Machina.  Either way, she should win the award.

Who Could Win: Kate Winslet – Steve Jobs

Winslet has a decent chance here. She has picked up a few awards this season for her role as Joanna Hoffman, Steve Job’s assistant in Steve Jobs. She managed to tackle a tricky accent and nailed Aaron Sorkin’s word jumble dialogue. While I bet Vikander wins, Winslet could be the upset.

Best Achievement in Directing:
The Big Short – Adam McKay
Mad Max: Fury Road – George Miller
The Revenant – Alejandro G. Iñárritu
Room – Lenny Abrahamson
Spotlight – Tom McCarthy

Who Will Win: The Revenant – Alejandro G. Iñárritu

Looks like Iñárritu will pull off the unlikely and win the award two years in a row. Iñárritu won the DGA earlier this month and it looks like the momentum from the BAFTAs is in his favor for the win.

Who Could Win: Mad Max: Fury Road – George Miller

Miller had a lot of buzz in the beginning of the season, yet it kind of got lost in the shuffle. Fury Road was a huge passion project for Miller, so it would be awesome to see him pull off the upset.

 

Best Adapted Screenplay:
The Big Short 
Brooklyn
Carol
The Martian
Room

Who Will Win: The Big Short 

It would be surprising if anyone but The Big Short won here. McKay truly adapted the screenplay so it could be universally understood while adding in the dramatic and comedic value for a compelling story.

Who Could Win: The Martian or Room 

Andy Weir’s novel takes science and makes it enjoyable. The Martian did that and more. However, it is not lacking in competition. Emma Donoghue did the unlikely and found a way to adapt her own book for the screen. She took a complicated perspective from a child and found a way to still incorporate his story on the big screen while still keeping that innocent perspective.

Best Original Screenplay:
Bridge of Spies
Ex Machina
Inside Out
Spotlight
Straight Outta Compton

Who Will Win: Spotlight

Spotlight took a rather boring and complicated story and made it a riveting and engrossing without all the flashy aspects. After winning the WGA, expect it to walk away with the Oscar.

Who Could Win: Inside Out

Inside Out is the shoe-in to win Best Animated Feature and it looks like the voters think one honor is enough. Come on, if you didn’t cry when Bing Bong died, do you even have emotions!?

Best Motion Picture:
The Big Short
Bridge of Spies
Brooklyn
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Room
Spotlight

Who Will Win: The Revenant

Honestly, it really is a toss up with this one. The Revenant is running off some hot momentum from its winning night at the BAFTAs so I’m gunna go with this one. However, The Revenant has a bunch of “Oscar don’t” working against it. It doesn’t have that coveted PGA win which has predicted the last 10 Best Pictures, it is missing a screenplay award, and it has Leo’s bad luck. It wouldn’t be surprising if it lost to either The Big Short or Spotlight.